How it works
From rough estimates to a fee you can defend.
Projectrus treats your estimate the way an actuary treats risk. Here's exactly what happens between your task list and your quote.
Quote the P80 and you have an 80% chance of delivering on budget.
The process
Three steps, start to quote
Break the project into tasks
List the work as tasks, give each a base-hours estimate, and grade its complexity from 1 (routine) to 5 (genuine unknowns). The grade controls how much a task is allowed to overrun in the simulation.
Run 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
Projectrus runs Monte Carlo simulations right in your browser: it plays your whole project out 10,000 times, each run letting every task land somewhere in its realistic range (wider for higher-complexity work). Seeing thousands of outcomes instead of one is what reveals how likely any given budget really is.
Read the percentiles and quote
The simulation reports P50, P80, and P95 by default. Quote the P80 and you have an 80% chance of finishing on or under budget, a confidence level you choose and can defend.
The ideas behind it
What makes the number trustworthy
Percentiles, not point estimates
A P80 of 420 hours means 80% of simulated outcomes finished at or under 420 hours. Instead of one optimistic number, you get a range and pick the confidence you're comfortable committing to. P50, P80, and P95 are the defaults; you can configure the confidence levels you target to fit your risk appetite.
Cost drivers you can point at
A cost-driver breakdown ranks the tasks contributing the most uncertainty to the total. When a client pushes back on price, you can show exactly which tasks drive it, and which scope to cut to bring it down.
Live budget-risk tracking
As work lands, log actual hours. The forecast re-runs against what's left, so the range tightens and you see early whether you're trending over budget while there's still time to renegotiate scope or timeline.
It learns your team's bias
Over time Projectrus calibrates to how your team actually estimates versus delivers, so each new project's simulation reflects your real track record, not generic assumptions.
With your clients
Turn pricing debates into evidence-based conversations.
Because every number traces back to your own estimates and a transparent model, you can walk a client through the why behind the price. When they want it lower, the cost-driver view shows exactly which tasks to trim, so the conversation is about scope and trade-offs, not a tug of war over a single figure.
Example scope conversation
- API integration120h baseHigh risk
- Admin dashboard80h baseMedium risk
- Auth & permissions40h baseLow risk
- Reporting module60h baseHigh risk
Questions
Try it on your next project.
Free to start, no credit card. See your first defensible fixed fee in minutes.